tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19492813.post8650360551357188626..comments2024-02-24T09:14:44.403+00:00Comments on The Poor Mouth: Chatham House/St Andrew’s University report casts serious doubt on Iranian victory claimsjams o donnellhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17315325008175184363noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19492813.post-557777116671109802009-06-21T23:24:48.208+01:002009-06-21T23:24:48.208+01:00I can't figure out how the "assumed take&...I can't figure out how the "assumed take" numbers in figure 3 are calculated. Any help?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19492813.post-4293156980995512702009-06-21T22:58:16.389+01:002009-06-21T22:58:16.389+01:00Thanks for this Anonumous!Thanks for this Anonumous!jams o donnellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17315325008175184363noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19492813.post-14755612402416735872009-06-21T22:54:14.827+01:002009-06-21T22:54:14.827+01:00Executive Summary
Working from the province by pr...Executive Summary<br /><br />Working from the province by province breakdowns of the 2009 and 2005<br />results, released by the Iranian Ministry of Interior, and from the 2006 census<br />as published by the official Statistical Centre of Iran, the following observations<br />about the official data and the debates surrounding it can be made.<br /><br />· In two Conservative provinces, Mazandaran and Yazd, a turnout of<br />more than 100% was recorded.<br /><br />· At a provincial level, there is no correlation between the increased<br />turnout, and the swing to Ahmadinejad. This challenges the notion<br />that his victory was due to the massive participation of a previously silent Conservative majority.<br />· In a third of all provinces, the official results would require that<br />Ahmadinejad took not only all former conservative voters, and all<br />former centrist voters, and all new voters, but also up to 44% of former<br />Reformist voters, despite a decade of conflict between these two<br />groups.<br /><br />· In 2005, as in 2001 and 1997, conservative candidates, and<br />Ahmadinejad in particular, were markedly unpopular in rural areas.<br />That the countryside always votes conservative is a myth. The claim<br />that this year Ahmadinejad swept the board in more rural provinces<br />flies in the face of these trends.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com