More Cameron woes

There are times when even I almost feel sorry for David Cameron. The timing of a visit to Rwanda seems to have blown up in his face. Leaving aside discontent at home it seems that even Rwandans are wondering what he is doing visiting the African state at a time when constituency is under water.

Interviewed on Rwandan Television earlier today he was asked “What do you have to say about continuing with your visit to Rwanda when part of your constituency is completely devastated by floods?” Cameron did reassure the people of Rwanda that he was in constant contact with his constituency and the he hoped to return there soon.

In the meantime another poll is showing the Tories well behind Labour. A Guardian ICM poll, gives Labour 38% and six-point lead over the conservatives who at 32% are on their lowest share in any ICM poll since Michael Howard was leader. This sort of lead would give Labour comfortable majority at a general election

While Brown is on the rise, Cameron seems to be in growing trouble: 21% of voters say their opinion of him has dropped since Mr Brown took over. Conversely almost one in four Tory voters say their view of Mr Brown has gone up since he took over.

The Lib Dems are on 20%

(999th Post)

Another good poll for Labour?

I can’t see anything on the paper’s website but Conservative Home is reporting that a YouGov poll for the Sunday Times puts Labour (40%,) seven points ahead of the Tories (33%), the same as last week’s poll in the Sunday Telegraph.

Conservative Home also reports that Brown is also showing a strong lead over Cameron on "sticking to his beliefs" and on being perceived as strong. A majority of respondents, however, believe that Brown should call an election within a few months.

More good news by looks of it

I suppose because there were no elections in London this year, the local elections passed me by to fair extent. Last year was pretty grim on the whole: locally we saw Labour all but wiped out in Havering. This year’s results don’t exactly make cheerful reading but they could have been so much worse (honest, they could have been much, much worse!).

The Scottish Nationalists are the largest party in Scotland, but will need a three party coalition for form a majority government. We are no longer has a majority in Wales but can rule in coalition with the Lib Dems (if they wish to play ball that is). The Tories did well in the South and the Midlands but not so well in the North so Cameron is probably feeling quite pleased with himself at the moment.

How do we view this? A final kick at a PM who was on the way out anyway? Perhaps, but will our prospects improve if Brown takes over? (I say if, but there seems to be little prospect at the moment of anyone else succeeding Blair) It is very possible that the electorate will simply see Brown’s succession as a case of “Meet the new boss, same as the old boss” and we will be out on our ear in 2009 or 2010. On the other hand if Brown can make some headway in the next two years in some of the issues where we are seen as deficient (eg the NHS, perception of crime) then a fourth election victory is not an impossible prospect.